EDPE · Earnings Directional Prediction Engine

Know which side of earnings to trade.
Before the print.

ConfirmationTrade grades every S&P 500 earnings event with an ML-calibrated probability of direction. Top-decile setups, live backtest, instant alerts. Built for traders who want an edge before the bell rings.

View Pricing See Live Track Record →

+14.69%

Backtest Equity Return

5,794

Trades Graded

503

Stock Universe

v5-ensemble-tuned

Active Model

Walk-forward window: 2024-01-25 → 2026-05-28 · each trade = 1-day hold (T+0 → T+1 after earnings)

How it works

From earnings event to graded signal in three steps.

Earnings event detected

We pull every confirmed earnings date for the S&P 500 from Nasdaq + SEC EDGAR. ~5-15 reports any given day.

ML ensemble grades the setup

XGBoost + LightGBM + Logistic, Optuna-tuned, isotonic-calibrated. Outputs a true P(UP) probability + rule score + sentiment overlay.

Dual-gate fires the signal

Rule ≥ 65 + 3/3 ML bullish OR P(UP) ≥ 0.65 + 3/3 ML + enhanced ≥ 70. You get an email + push the moment a setup qualifies.

What's included

Every tool an earnings trader actually needs.

High & Elite Conviction

Top-decile setups graded daily. Elite tier = P(UP) ≥ 80% + enhanced ≥ 85 + unanimous 3/3 ML bull. The cream of the dual-gate.

ML-calibrated probabilities

True P(UP) from a 3-model ensemble. Isotonic calibration means a 70% signal actually wins 70% of the time over the backtest set.

Trade Timing card

Optimal entry window (T-5 → T-2) + exit (T+1) for every signal. Never miss the setup AND never enter too early.

Live Backtest engine

5,800+ historical earnings trades, 2-year walk-forward, real SPY benchmark. The chart updates daily as new trades grade.

Email + Web-Push alerts

The moment a stock enters High or Elite tier, you get tagged. Tier explicit in the subject. Max 1 per symbol per day.

Public Conviction History

Every signal we've ever emitted — with entry window, exit date, confirmation timestamp, and realized %. Auditable performance.

Simple pricing

One plan. Full access. 3-day free trial.

$99/month, or save ~17% with $990/year. Cancel anytime. Refund within 24 hours of first charge — no questions asked.

Monthly

$99/mo

Cancel anytime.

Best Value

Annual

$990/yr

$82.50/mo · save ~17% vs monthly.

See full pricing

Auditable Track Record

Every signal we've ever fired is timestamped + graded. Public ledger at /track-record.

Real Money Benchmarks

Backtest compares against actual SPY closes over the same trade dates. No vanity returns.

Updated Daily

ML retrain runs nightly on Nasdaq earnings + SEC insider flow + macro features.

Stop guessing earnings direction.

Try ConfirmationTrade free for 3 days. If it doesn't pay for itself before the trial ends, walk away — no questions, no charge.

No card upfront Cancel anytime 24h refund

Know which side of earnings to trade.Before the print.

From earnings event to graded signal in three steps.

Every tool an earnings trader actually needs.

One plan. Full access. 3-day free trial.

Stop guessing earnings direction.

Know which side of earnings to trade.
Before the print.